Next week's steel price forecast

This week, the main steel varieties compared with last week, rising varieties significantly reduced, falling varieties increased significantly. Among the raw material iron ore prices fell 30-85 yuan, scrap steel prices fell 20-30 yuan, the overall trend of shock downward, how the market next week, look down ......

First, the steel market influencing factors are as follows

1, 2023 December social financing scale increment of 1.94 trillion yuan

China's social financing scale in December 1,940 billion yuan, expected 2,200 billion yuan, the previous value of 2,450 billion yuan, 616.9 billion yuan more than the same period of the previous year. 2023 annual incremental social financing scale cumulative total of 35.59 trillion yuan, 3.41 trillion yuan more than the previous year. (China Economic Net)

2, the national bureau of statistics interpretation 2023

December CPI and PPI number in December, by the cold weather and pre-holiday consumer demand increase and other factors, the CPI ring from decline to rise, year-on-year decline narrowed; in December, by the international oil prices continue to decline, some industrial demand is not enough and other factors, the country's PPI ring down, year-on-year decline narrowed. (Statistics Bureau)

3, China's steel output is expected to be about 1.02 billion tonnes in 2023

In the first 11 months of 2023, the national steel output was 952 million tonnes, up 1.5% year-on-year. It is expected that in 2023, the national steel output will be about 1.02 billion tonnes, basically flat year-on-year; the apparent consumption of crude steel will be about 940 million tonnes, slightly down year-on-year. (China Steel Association) Second, the spot market aspects

This week's rebar: sharp downward adjustment

This week, as the raw material side continued to fall, spot prices should fall. Approaching the winter storage, from the successive release of the steel mills winter storage policy, the price is still high, or affect the subsequent demand, is expected to rebar steel next week, stable and weak run

This week's hot coil: slightly downward

This week by the steel mills to reduce the impact of raw fuel prices fell back, but the current market fundamentals are not significantly negative performance, social inventories, although there is a slight accumulation of inventory performance, but the inventory increase is limited, is expected to next week's hot rolled slightly downward.

This week in the plate: stable in the weak

Medium plate supply and demand double increase, maintain the pace of inventory. However, the furnace material replenishment is close to the end, iron ore and double coke prices fell back from the high level, the cost support weakened compared to the previous period, is expected to be stable in the next week in the plate to the downside.

This week's strip steel: weak run

This week, the black system shock fall, spot prices follow the downward adjustment, the current downstream concentration of low-priced replenishment is completed, followed by the weak enthusiasm for taking goods, coupled with the end of the year orders are insufficient, is expected to strip steel narrowly weak run next week.

This week's profile: weak run

Coke to land, raw material support loosening, although manufacturers are limited by cost pressures may not be wide reduction, but the demand for off-season below the support is weak, superimposed on poor demand for spot prices under pressure, is expected to profile shock weak run.

This week's pipe: shock weak

Pipe factory cost support tends to be strong, profit turn upside down, supply pressure does not reduce. Market, downstream traders are still on the sidelines of the winter storage, the overall transaction level continues to be low, the factory inventory continues to accumulate, is expected to be stable and weak pipe prices next week.

Third, the raw material market

This week's billet: sharp downward adjustment

Although the recent second round of coke drop to attack, the cost of steel enterprises or a slight reduction, but the performance of the ore spot market temporarily firm, the loss situation continues, resistance to fall is expected to be more obvious, is expected to billet next week run firm.

This week's iron ore: weak run

Affected by the recent iron ore market weak shock, steel enterprises on the late bearish mentality is strong, coupled with most of the steel enterprises to replenish the basic completion of the inventory, the market enquiry is small, more wait-and-see the market is mainly, is expected to be the next week, the price of minerals shock weak run.

This week's coke: stable to weak

Restricted by profit losses, coking plant start-up enthusiasm is general, individual coke enterprises have production reduction; superimposed on the coke inventory is at a normal level, the coke more to maintain on-demand procurement, coke is expected to run weakly next week.

This week's scrap: stable to weak

The recent market began to fall, resulting in a continuous decline in the trading volume of finished materials, the market fear of falling mood aggravated, in addition, with the loss of steel mills, scrap price pressure mentality is more obvious, is expected to scrap steel next week, stable and weak run.

Pig iron this week: the main stable a tune

Black system futures plate shock fell, the business mentality was frustrated, coupled with the current iron economy is not as good as scrap, businessmen wait-and-see mentality is strong, the overall market atmosphere is cold, is expected to next week pig iron narrowly weak run.

Fourth, the comprehensive view

Domestic CPI and PPI data is still unsatisfactory, the policy is less than expected, the support for steel prices weakened. This week, the five major steel varieties of total inventories increased, the table demand continues to decline, the seasonal off-season is more obvious.